In this post, we tried to clear the concept of demographic cycle and the present trend of demographic roadmap in India and South East Asian countries. Hope it will help you.
Trend of a basic demographic cycle:
At first, we will see the trend of a basic demographic cycle in any country. There are 5 stages in a basic demographic cycle as shown below. India is now considered to be in the stage 3 (late expanding stage) of the demographic cycle.
Now, we will discuss what the term “Dependency ratio” is and what are the present and future trends of the demographic ratio in India (or any country).
Dependency ratio is defined as the portions of (persons >65 years of age + persons <15 years of age).
Now a question may come, why only these 2 age groups are concerned while calculating the dependency ratio of a country?
These 2 age groups are considered to be dependent on the economically productive age group (15-64 years of age), so the dependency ratio is calculated on these 2 age groups only.
Types of dependency ratio and their calculations:
1. Total dependency ratio: It is expressed as [children 0-14 years of age + persons >65 years of age]/[population 15-64 years of age] expressed in percentage (%).
2. Young age/ child dependency ratio: It is expressed as [children 0-14 years of age]/ [population 15-64 years of age] expressed in percentage (%).
3. Old age dependency ratio: It is expressed as [persons >65 years of age]/ [population 15-64 years of age] expressed in percentage (%).
4. So, from the above discussions, we get that,
Total dependency ratio (TDR)= Young age/ child dependency ratio (CDR) + Old age dependency ratio (ODR).
Or, TDR= CDR + ODR.
Trend of demographic ratio in India/ other countries:
1. The TDR tends to decrease in the earlier stages of rapid economic development due to rapid decline in fertility and subsequent decrease in the CDR. This phase is called as “Demographic bonus”.
2. But subsequently, in the late stages of development, due to increasing longevity of the old age group, the ODR increases and TDR also starts to increase. This phase is called as “Demographic burden”.
It should be noted that, not only India, but all countries go through this general trend of dependency ratio over a long period of time. The problem of demographic burden has to be tackled by every country at one time at the late stages of its economic development.